Posted by George on November 09, 2009 at 19:00:58:
In Reply to: Re: posted by john on November 09, 2009 at 17:55:45:
Besides all the loans that have to be refinanced in the next couple of years as Ray alluded to, in order for commercial real estate to stabilize or improve, the national economy has to improve. That remains a very iffy proposition. The economy right now is totally running on government stimulus. TARP, trillions in Fed intervention, 2009 stimulus. Without government intervention, we'd already be in Great Depression II. The key to a recovery not only of the larger economy but also commercial real estate in particular is the consumer spending again. With consumer debt remaining at record levels, foreclosures remaining very high for the foresseable future, and unemployment still rising, I don't see the consumer coming back anytime soon. I believe that Ross and Soros are understating the severity of the problem, not overstating it. Be careful, very careful going forward with any kind of deal right now and keep the risk level low.